Archive for the ‘Investing’ Category

And So It Begins…

Tuesday, November 8th, 2005

Apparently the big house builders are skeptical of the housing market…

Toll Brothers Inc., the largest U.S. builder of luxury homes, reduced next year’s sales forecast, saying the housing market is weakening after a five-year boom. Its shares fell 14 percent, the most in seven years.

The sales forecast was cut by a range of 3.8 percent to 6.9 percent because of “some softening of demand” and delays in opening new communities

Interest rates are rising, making mortgages more costly and curbing home sales, which have hit highs each year since 2001. The housing market has accounted for 50 percent of U.S. economic growth and more than half of private payroll jobs created in that period

“Since Katrina, instead of going up $5,000 to $10,000 every week or two, we have been limited to no price increases or very limited price increases.”

Bruce Toll, the Toll co-founder…sold 502,480 shares earlier this year…leaving him with a 5.2 percent share of the builder. Robert Toll owned 18.1 million shares, or 11.6 percent of the outstanding stock, as of Aug. 31.

The Mortgage Bankers Association last week said its measure of home-purchase applications dropped to the lowest level since February. The gauge has declined in six of the last seven weeks.

Well, this will be interesting. Since its so widely reported, will this start to drive housing prices and demand down, or will it plateau and reverse slowly? We’ll have to wait and see what happens.

Oops, I Did It Again…

Friday, October 21st, 2005

Dag nabit… On Monday I entered a trade @ 1.7491 and exited @ 1.7515…. I made a nice amount, but had I stayed in…. I would have made about 10x as much. A long-term buy looked good the entire week. Why oh why do I not stay in for longer time periods?! Had I stayed in, I would have earned slightly more than 1/3 of my salary in one week.

Plus, I see EWTN and Catholic Answers need money. So I better stop monkeying around with short-term profits, because these charities need me! I’m still debating who to give my last charitable contribution to for the year. Had I made that much, it wouldn’t even be an issue. I’m deciding between Aid For Women, EWTN, and Catholic Answers.

Guess I’ll just have to wait until next week, as the GBP market closes in about 5 hours. Of course, last Friday there was a huge Bull rally, so who knows…maybe this week will be the same. Today’s high was 1.7777. Can you guess my salary? I make just enough to pay the bills…. ;o)

The Retirement of a Maestro

Wednesday, October 19th, 2005

Allan Greenspan, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, is set to retire in January. According to an article in The Economist, the last time there was a change in hands of the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, there was economic instability for at least a year, starting when the Fed chairman was replaced…

Financial markets are typically more volatile during the first year after the handover to a new chairman than during the rest of his tenure.

Since the dollar is already in a weakened position, and there’s a housing bubble, this may be the thing that causes the bubble to burst….as the article indicates:

There is a stronger case for restraining housing bubbles than stockmarket bubbles, because they tend to cause greater economic harm when they burst.

…which stands to reason, as more people have their money invested in the housing market, than in the stock market.

What will this mean for the future? Well, with the right positioning, this could mean major gains, especially when it comes to currency trading. I, for one, am hoping to make money off of this, as I am sure the hand-off will produce a negative effect for the U.S. Dollar. Wouldn’t be too bad of a Christmas bonus to gain 10 cents on the pound…. :o)

Morality of Money

Monday, October 17th, 2005

I was chatting with Matt today at Quincy’s, and asked him what his view on Currency Trading was, as Matt tends to have unique perspectives. He was definitely opposed to it and likened it to stealing. I was slightly surprised by his take on this. I then asked him what he thought of playing cards, specifically Texas Hold’em, and his view was different, depending on whether there were large sums of money involved versus small sums of money.

The question put forth is this: Is currency trading morally acceptable? Or is it more like Matt’s position, that of stealing? An economic purist might say that currency trading isn’t very good for society because it doesn’t produce any good or service [utility], and, in this regard is much like gambling.
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Again with the Timing

Wednesday, October 12th, 2005

So today was a good day. I got really busy near the end of work with a bagillion changes, but …. I was able to successfully trade and double yesterday’s profit. Unfortunately, I pulled out when I got tired of the bobbing up and down of the market (should have just stopped paying attention…I’m sure I’ll be kicking myself later tonight). I mainly blame all these little things I was doing for work for distracting me from being focused. Of course, my job is my duty, so it comes first.
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Control Thyself

Tuesday, October 11th, 2005

Controlling one’s emotions is a difficult thing to do. In my recent experience (see image, all times EDT), I had good control entering the trade, but then I lost it after a bit of time because I didn’t want to lose my position (fight or flight…). When at the whims of the market, one must control oneself.
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